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UK NEWS

BANK BOSS: BUMPY BUT NOT A RECESSION

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CAUTION: Governer King

Thursday May 15,2008

By Sarah O'Grady, Property Correspondent

FEARS of a recession were played down by the Bank of England yesterday[WED] with Governor Mervyn King claiming Britain’s economy could ride out the current downturn.

The Bank’s own prediction was of rising inflation over the next two years - dampening homeowner’s hopes of further interest rate cuts and prompting concerns about falling house prices.

Government figures on Tuesday also showed that the rate of consumer inflation reached its highest level in 13 months driven by high food and fuel costs.

But the UK economy would absorb the problems and bounce back thanks to easier access to financing in the global financial markets, said Mr King.

And he said the spectre of 1990s-style repossessions would not arise.

The slowdown in the economy would reflect a squeeze in real incomes, he added, then credit conditions will begin to ease and the depreciation of sterling start to boost exports and reduce imports.

Mr King said: “At some point we might get the odd quarter or two of negative growth but recession is not the central projection at all.

“Clearly further shocks could push us in that direction but it is certainly not our central projection.

“The central projection is for growth to slow sharply in the near term, while I expect growth to rebound in 2009.”

Mr King added that home repossessions will not reach the levels seen in the early 1990s despite the tough challenges ahead for the UK economy, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said today.

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Falling house prices and dearer mortgage deals from lenders have raised fears that thousands more borrowers could lose their homes in the looming slowdown.

But Mr King said today repossessions were “markedly below” the levels seen at the peak of the last recession, with just 1% of borrowers more than three months in arrears compared to 6% then.

He said: “It is worth hanging onto the fact when families get into difficulties the question is what affects their ability to service mortgage debt.

“What caused major problems in the 1990s was the doubling of interest rates and the very sharp increase in unemployment. None of these things apply at present, neither are they part of our central projections.”

But Mr King did warn that already hard-pushed Britons must prepare themselves to further tighten their belts.

He said: “As those price increases feed through to household bills, they will lead to a squeeze on real take-home pay, which will slow consumer spending and output growth, perhaps sharply.”

The Bank added to the gloom by predicting growth could slow to just 1 per cent this year - well below official Government forecasts - as banks hit by the credit crunch tighten up lending and consumers alarmed by falling house prices save more.

Mr King said: “We are travelling along a bumpy road as the economy rebalances, and the balancing act faced by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is even more challenging than it was in February.

“The MPC is facing its most difficult challenge yet. For the time being at least, the nice decade is behind us.”

Mr King said that external factors, such as high food and fuel prices, and problems in the global financial markets and the subsequent credit crunch, were hitting the UK and would have a noticeable impact on the economy.

“But lenders and consumers are reverting to a more sensible and prudent approach to lending and borrowing,” he added.

Referring to the recent £50bn cash injection into the money market to prop up mortgage lending, Mr King said it had been successful “so far, but it will take a long time before its effects feed through”.

The economic slowdown hit the jobs market when the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance rose at the highest rate for two years, fuelling a big rise in unemployment.

The so-called claimant count went up by 7,200 in March to 806,300, the third consecutive monthly rise and the biggest monthly increase since April 2006. Conservative shadow work and pensions secretary Chris Grayling said:
“These figures should give everyone cause for concern.

“With all the economic bad news around at the moment and the mounting cost of living, rising unemployment is just going to make a difficult situation worse.”

Liberal Democrat shadow chancellor, Vince Cable said: “This is a clear sign that a combination of the credit crunch, rising inflation and massive personal debt has now started to impact on the economy.

“The fact that Gordon Brown ignored the mounting economic warning signs is now looking deeply complacent.”


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FANTASY ISLAND

15.05.08, 12:05pm

Another Brown crony living in fantasy land. Brown has picked our pockets for 11 years and squandered every penny we gave him. Prices are through the roof and the government has told everyone they need to tighten their belts, does he not understand that we are on the last notch already.
You only have to look at Kings body language to realize he does not really believe a word he is actually saying.

• Posted by: ColReport Comment

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"BUMPY BUT NOT A RECESSION"

15.05.08, 9:52am

That could almost have been written by Brown or Darling.

Surely not ;)

• Posted by: Veltro205Report Comment

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